Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led Action game?

Action + Villain Protagonist

Of 24 developers who shipped a Villain-Led Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $20k, ×31 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×411 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 56 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 31.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 56 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $185k → $12k → $188k → $25k → $14k → $12k → $8.1k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Median $20k (exactly $19,611)
Top 25% $146k (exactly $146,254)
Top 5% $258k (exactly $258,214)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 160
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 3,877 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
Untitled Goose Game older $19.99 22,797 95% 684k $14M (exactly $13,671,361) House House
Prototype 2 older $39.99 10,389 75% 312k $12M (exactly $12,463,683) Radical Entertainment
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Destroy All Humans! older $29.99 8,971 92% 269k $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios
Aliens vs. Predator™ older $14.99 16,268 91% 488k $7.3M (exactly $7,315,720) Rebellion
LEGO® DC Super-Villains older $39.99 5,798 91% 174k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,861) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Dungeon Warfare 3 $18.99 679 78% 20k $387k (exactly $386,826) Excidium Inc., Valsar
TORMENTOR $29.99 287 49% 8.6k $258k (exactly $258,214) Madmind Studio
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare
Highway Police Simulator $27.99 242 30% 7.3k $203k (exactly $203,207) Z-Software
YOU ARE THE MONSTER · EA $9.99 488 69% 15k $146k (exactly $146,254) Joshua Hughes
Relooted $14.99 257 87% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Nyamakop
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
Munch $16.66 96 60% 2.9k $48k (exactly $47,981) Mac n Cheese Games
ION Shift $5.99 140 90% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) Electro Soul Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.