Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Action game?

Action + Transportation

Of 42 developers who shipped a Transportation Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×684 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 59 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 59 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $5.8k → $718 → $719 → $2.7k → $4.3k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $716 (exactly $716)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,603)
Top 5% $429k (exactly $429,464)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 105
Announced 59
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Transportation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 21,257 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Need for Speed™ Hot Pursuit Remastered older $29.99 13,583 81% 407k $12M (exactly $12,220,625) Stellar Entertainment Limited
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
OMSI 2: Steam Edition older $29.99 8,586 84% 258k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,824) MR-Software GbR
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Bus Simulator 18 older $14.99 8,779 79% 263k $3.9M (exactly $3,947,916) stillalive studios
Train Sim World® 4 older $29.99 3,322 79% 100k $3.0M (exactly $2,988,803) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 2020 older $12.99 5,912 77% 177k $2.3M (exactly $2,303,906) Dovetail Games
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Cabin Crew Life Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) SOGA Std
TROLEU $9.99 607 92% 18k $182k (exactly $181,918) andrground
Big Rigs: Over the Road Racing $5.99 640 79% 19k $115k (exactly $115,008) Stellar Stone
Truck Mechanic: Dangerous Paths $19.99 150 60% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Atomic Jelly
VR Sailing $7.99 307 96% 9.2k $74k (exactly $73,588) HFRK.
PROFITS 2167: Planetary Resource Optimization & Freight Infrastructure Technician Simulator · EA $6.99 209 98% 6.3k $44k (exactly $43,827) Simple Software Solutions
Neon Curves Racing $12.99 92 94% 2.8k $36k (exactly $35,852) Ghost Machine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.