Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Action game?

Action + Trading

Of 46 developers who shipped a Trading Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 177 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1255 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 177 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 177 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.9k → $628 → $1.2k → $12k → $6.8k → $1.5k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,982)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 194
Announced 177
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 12,231 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $810, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 177 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elite Dangerous older $19.99 82,399 76% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,414,680) Frontier Developments
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Drug Dealer Simulator older $19.99 18,297 85% 549k $11M (exactly $10,972,711) Byterunners
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
Rebel Galaxy older $19.99 7,255 85% 218k $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) Double Damage Games
Drug Dealer Simulator 2 older $24.99 5,480 69% 164k $4.1M (exactly $4,108,356) Byterunners
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry $12.99 399 81% 12k $155k (exactly $155,490) Ritual Interactive
I Know a Guy: Shady Life Simulator · EA $12.99 398 90% 12k $155k (exactly $155,101) Bunch'o'Nerds
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
Device Doctor Simulator 2024 $9.99 186 62% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) Tenacity Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.