Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Action game?

Action + Time Manipulation

Of 130 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 236 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×286 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 236 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 236 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $2.2k → $390 (still earning) → $234 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,585)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $179,910)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 421
Announced 236
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Time Manipulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action-Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,759 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $810, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 76 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 236 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
SUPERHOT older $24.99 27,765 91% 833k $21M (exactly $20,815,420) SUPERHOT Team
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Singularity™ older $29.99 5,487 93% 165k $4.9M (exactly $4,936,654) Raven Software
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Timespinner older $19.99 2,823 86% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) Lunar Ray Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Chrono Gear: Warden of Time $17.99 950 98% 29k $513k (exactly $512,715) Team Chrono Gear, GalaxyTrail
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Advent NEON® $19.99 300 98% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) CryoGX
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
MotionRec $9.99 430 99% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) HANDSUM
Maze Mice $9.99 315 88% 9.5k $94k (exactly $94,406) TrampolineTales

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.