Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Samurai

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Samurai Action game?

Action + Samurai

Only 18 developers shipped a Samurai Action game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin’s Creed Shadows, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $73M, ×116864 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 30 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Samurai
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.8M → $16k → $80k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Samurai: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $10,782)
Median $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 25% $192k (exactly $191,923)
Top 5% $73M (exactly $73,390,814)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 49
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Samurai
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Open World, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 54,306 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $73M.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Like a Dragon: Ishin! older $39.99 4,891 80% 147k $5.9M (exactly $5,867,733) RGG Studio
SAMURAI SHODOWN older $49.53 1,685 81% 51k $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) SNK CORPORATION
SAMURAI WARRIORS 5 older $59.99 1,313 81% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,363,006) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4-II older $49.99 1,259 73% 38k $1.9M (exactly $1,888,122) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Katanaut $17.99 484 88% 15k $261k (exactly $261,215) Voidmaw
Warlord: Awaji $24.99 256 78% 7.7k $192k (exactly $191,923) Darkmatter Games
Gurei $15.99 281 83% 8.4k $135k (exactly $134,796) Lobo Sagaz studio
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
Red Masked Ronin: Desires and Shadows · EA $12.99 205 64% 6.2k $80k (exactly $79,888) Light Hunt Games
Cursed Blood · EA $14.99 37 75% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) David Marquardt Studios
Tokyo Underground Killer $9.99 52 78% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Phoenix Game Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.