Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Action game?

Action + Rhythm

Of 272 developers who shipped a Rhythm Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 402 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×580 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 402 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 402 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 272
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.2k → $449 → $1.9k → $716 → $1.3k → $898 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 272
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $364k (exactly $364,378)
Developers, 2 yr 272
Released games 1,028
Announced 402
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Rhythm; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 54,736 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 144 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 402 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
Just Shapes & Beats older $19.99 24,041 97% 721k $14M (exactly $14,417,388) Berzerk Studio
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
PATAPON 1+2 REPLAY $29.99 2,091 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,273) SAS CO.,LTD.
Ratatan · EA $24.99 2,449 85% 73k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts
Everhood 2 $19.99 2,207 74% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL $24.99 1,425 86% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,322) Starlike Inc.
PLATiNA :: LAB $19.99 1,780 50% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,466) HIGH-END Games
PUMP IT UP RISE $44.99 777 80% 23k $1.0M (exactly $1,048,717) ANDAMIRO
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.