Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Action game?

Action + Puzzle

Of 1,521 developers who shipped a Puzzle Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,526 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×350 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 2,526 games are announced against 823 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 2,526 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,521
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $899 → $1.3k → $719 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,521
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $219,527)
Developers, 2 yr 1,521
Released games 5,875
Announced 2,526
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 86,654 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 904 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,526 games are announced against 823 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Resident Evil 2 older $39.99 156,065 97% 4.7M $187M (exactly $187,231,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Little Nightmares III $39.99 10,165 46% 305k $12M (exactly $12,194,950) Supermassive Games
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Neva $19.99 9,343 93% 280k $5.6M (exactly $5,602,997) Nomada Studio
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.