Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Action game?

Action + Programming

Of 28 developers who shipped a Programming Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×422 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 49 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 49 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.1k → $1.0k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $2.4k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,485)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,058)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 102
Announced 49
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Automation, PvE
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Braid, Anniversary Edition 2024 · $1.1M Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor 2020 · $1.1M Hacker Simulator 2021 · $922k The Magic Circle 2015 · $648k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Hacker Simulator older $24.99 1,230 74% 37k $922k (exactly $922,131) Save All Studio
The Magic Circle older $19.99 1,080 91% 32k $648k (exactly $647,676) Question
Quadrilateral Cowboy older $19.99 897 92% 27k $538k (exactly $537,931) Blendo Games
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
Onset · EA older $18.99 674 66% 20k $384k (exactly $383,978) Blue Mountains
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games
Planetoid Pioneers older $19.99 362 59% 11k $217k (exactly $217,091) Data Realms
Bioweaver $6.99 668 77% 20k $140k (exactly $140,080) Emprom Game, Wild Kid Games
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Age Of Warbots $9.99 160 83% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) VDimension
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
Bioprototype $4.99 50 86% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Emprom Game
Bit ESC $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Essssam
Clank-Robotics $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Clank Studios
Dash'n'Drops · EA $6.99 12 91% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Le Moulin aux Bulles

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.