Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Action game?

Action + Post-apocalyptic

Of 805 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,808 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2016 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 1,808 games are announced against 438 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 1,808 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 805
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.8k → $1.4k → $2.1k → $1.9k → $1.9k → $1.8k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 805
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,693)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 805
Released games 2,439
Announced 1,808
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,240,393 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 441 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,808 games are announced against 438 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.