Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Action game?

Action + Outbreak Sim

Of 37 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 70 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 30% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 70 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $479 → $2.7k → $1.6k → $298 → $599 → $179 (still earning) → $76 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 110
Announced 70
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Survival
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 20,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No More Room in Hell 2 2026 · $15M Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse 2021 · $1.1M Infectonator 3: Apocalypse 2018 · $487k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse older $19.99 1,781 89% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,066) Aspyr
Infectonator 3: Apocalypse older $12.99 1,250 83% 38k $487k (exactly $487,125) Toge Productions
Arizona Derby older $18.99 601 77% 18k $342k (exactly $342,390) Falcon Interactive
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Undead Inc. older $19.99 158 27% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Rightsized Games
ZOMBUTCHER: Monster Business Simulator $12.99 135 69% 4.1k $53k (exactly $52,610) ODIUS
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios
Quarantine Zombies: Contamination $9.99 74 48% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Stones Games
SuperSorry $5.99 115 74% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) Sun Studio
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Zombies Attack $4.99 26 100% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Liao Kai, LKK GAME

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.