Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Action game?

Action + Mystery

Of 1,024 developers who shipped a Mystery Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,996 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 1,996 games are announced against 567 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 1,996 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,024
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $1.4k → $1.3k → $1.4k → $1.1k → $899 → $899 (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,024
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,539)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,327)
Developers, 2 yr 1,024
Released games 2,733
Announced 1,996
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 357,079 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 565 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,996 games are announced against 567 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M Stray 2022 · $142M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M PEAK 2025 · $72M Outer Wilds 2020 · $67M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Ghostwire: Tokyo older $59.99 12,954 83% 389k $23M (exactly $23,313,314) Tango Gameworks
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Crisol: Theater of Idols $17.99 4,103 85% 123k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) Vermila Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.