Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Action game?

Action + Military

Of 481 developers who shipped a Military Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 985 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2761 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 985 games are announced against 262 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 985 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 481
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.4k → $1.0k → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 481
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,498)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722)
Developers, 2 yr 481
Released games 1,897
Announced 985
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, FPS, Tactical
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 530,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 290 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 985 games are announced against 262 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
Pavlov $24.99 37,865 88% 1.1M $28M (exactly $28,387,390) Vankrupt Games
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.