Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Action game?

Action + Metroidvania

Of 413 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,248 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $590k, ×949 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 1,248 games are announced against 223 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 1,248 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 413
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $2.4k → $7.6k → $8.2k → $7.2k → $3.6k → $5.7k (still earning) → $3.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 413
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,113)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,036)
Top 5% $596k (exactly $596,012)
Developers, 2 yr 413
Released games 1,556
Announced 1,248
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Platformer
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 438,818 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 225 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,248 games are announced against 223 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound $24.99 2,500 92% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) The Game Kitchen
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.