Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Action game?

Action + Lovecraftian

Of 155 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 325 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×894 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 325 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 325 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 155
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $6.0k → $7.8k → $4.1k → $6.0k → $18k → $3.6k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 155
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,177)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 155
Released games 487
Announced 325
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Survival Horror
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 33,446 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 76 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 325 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
Amnesia: The Dark Descent older $19.99 20,420 95% 613k $12M (exactly $12,245,874) Frictional Games
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
Forgive Me Father 2 $24.99 1,500 81% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,550) Byte Barrel
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Necrophosis $15.99 722 89% 22k $346k (exactly $346,343) Dragonis Ares, Adonis Brosteanu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.