Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action JRPG?

JRPG + Action

Of 162 developers who shipped an Action JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 311 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3888 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 311 games are announced against 82 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 311 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 162
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $72k → $55k → $21k → $12k → $15k → $29k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 162
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,260)
Median $11k (exactly $11,210)
Top 25% $102k (exactly $101,974)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512)
Developers, 2 yr 162
Released games 823
Announced 311
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Action; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 292,276 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 115 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 311 games are announced against 82 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.