Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Action game?

Action + Detective

Of 189 developers who shipped a Detective Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 363 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 363 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 363 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 189
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $2.4k → $899 → $1.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 189
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,874)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Developers, 2 yr 189
Released games 549
Announced 363
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 44,864 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 363 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc older $19.99 36,194 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,705,542) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games)
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
The Wolf Among Us older $14.99 32,494 97% 975k $15M (exactly $14,612,552) Telltale
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
The Other Side · EA $13.99 1,181 93% 35k $496k (exactly $495,666) Vectora Games
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.