Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Action game?

Action + Crime

Of 205 developers who shipped a Crime Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 490 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $680k, ×1095 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 490 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 490 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 205
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $4.8k → $2.7k → $5.1k → $3.4k → $2.5k → $1.4k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 205
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,734)
Top 5% $688k (exactly $687,856)
Developers, 2 yr 205
Released games 645
Announced 490
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action-Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 546,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 105 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 490 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
A Way Out older $29.99 78,174 87% 2.3M $70M (exactly $70,333,148) Hazelight Studios
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.