Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + 4 Player Local

Of 26 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 20 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 38 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $102k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.7k → $180 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,179)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 67
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, 4 Player Local; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, PvP
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 278 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wargroove 2019 · $2.4M Worms Clan Wars 2013 · $1.3M Evolution Board Game 2019 · $156k 富甲天下3 2023 · $127k Super Video Golf 2023 · $102k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wargroove older $19.99 4,015 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,407,796) Chucklefish
Worms Clan Wars older $24.99 1,678 77% 50k $1.3M (exactly $1,257,997) Team17 Digital Ltd
Evolution Board Game older $14.99 348 81% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) North Star Digital Studios
富甲天下3 older $7.99 530 83% 16k $127k (exactly $127,041) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
Super Video Golf older $9.99 342 96% 10k $102k (exactly $102,497) Trederia
MACHI KORO With Everyone older $24.99 119 66% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Grounding Inc.
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Tokaido older $11.99 147 68% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Funforge
Let's Play! Oink Games older $24.99 66 78% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) Oink Games Inc.
Tsuro - The Game of The Path older $9.99 134 91% 4.0k $40k (exactly $40,160) Thunderbox Entertainment
Beacon Patrol $11.99 70 97% 2.1k $25k (exactly $25,179) Shapes and Dreams, BrutalHack
Lunars · EA $14.99 40 97% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Anubis Arts
Critter Crossfire $14.99 31 90% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Evan Polekoff
Super World War $19.99 19 100% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Zero Games Studios
Boardquest: Tales of Liria $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ramezware SL
Biida-Bash $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Silver Thumb Games
Gold Coast Gambits: Boca Raton & Palm Beach $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Backhans Games
POGO Stadium · EA $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Kyoto Entertainment Works Inc.
Royal Dice Bingo $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Ark Factory

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.