Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Walking Simulator 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Walking Simulator

Of 184 developers who shipped a Walking Simulator 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 212 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $15k, ×25 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 212 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 212 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 184
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $449 → $1.9k → $599 → $1.2k → $539 → $420 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 184
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $15,884)
Developers, 2 yr 184
Released games 568
Announced 212
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Walking Simulator; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,730 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $15k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 134 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 212 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bomb Rush Cyberfunk older $39.99 12,645 98% 379k $15M (exactly $15,170,206) Team Reptile
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
A Short Hike older $7.99 19,219 99% 577k $4.6M (exactly $4,606,794) adamgryu
Spirit of the North older $19.99 5,633 84% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,378,110) Infuse Studio
RiME older $29.99 3,236 90% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,911,429) Tequila Works, QLOC
Valley older $14.99 6,276 91% 188k $2.8M (exactly $2,822,317) Blue Isle Studios
Exo One older $16.99 5,053 89% 152k $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) Exbleative
AER Memories of Old older $14.99 5,064 86% 152k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,281) Forgotten Key
SLUDGE LIFE older $14.99 1,900 95% 57k $854k (exactly $854,430) Terri Vellmann, Doseone
Lifeless Planet Premier Edition older $9.99 2,529 78% 76k $758k (exactly $757,941) Serenity Forge
沙雕之路 $10.00 1,039 96% 31k $312k (exactly $311,700) 馆叔
Pieces of me $8.99 594 87% 18k $160k (exactly $160,202) EMIKA_GAMES
Sex Trainer's Diary: Hidden Kink $19.99 184 70% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) 老二打鐵舖, 072 Localize, NOVA CONCEPT
Evil Holiday $4.99 208 80% 6.2k $31k (exactly $31,138) REVVALUTION Studio
Fragrance Point $8.00 113 96% 3.4k $27k (exactly $27,120) Halber Ball
?? Movie Theater $4.99 149 97% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,305) riinwin
holo8 $3.99 165 90% 5.0k $20k (exactly $19,750) frog blend
Puppet Team $4.99 112 64% 3.4k $17k (exactly $16,766) Editmode
Lonely Christmas $4.99 107 66% 3.2k $16k (exactly $16,018) ASK GAMES
Awakening Sarah $8.99 59 93% 1.8k $16k (exactly $15,912) Asteristic Game Studio, Anthony Septim

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.