Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Time Manipulation

Of 36 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 53 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $2.1k → $356 → $599 → $599 → $210 → $240 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $92k (exactly $91,749)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 108
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 411 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arise: A Simple Story older $19.99 2,723 91% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,632,983) Piccolo Studio
Prince of Persia®: The Sands of Time older $9.99 5,045 85% 151k $1.5M (exactly $1,511,986) Kudosoft
Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands™ older $9.99 2,882 70% 86k $864k (exactly $863,735) Ubisoft Montreal
Prince of Persia: The Two Thrones™ older $9.99 2,683 80% 80k $804k (exactly $804,095) Ubisoft Montreal
Quantum Conundrum older $8.99 1,758 84% 53k $474k (exactly $474,133) Airtight Games
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Hourglass older $19.99 331 88% 9.9k $199k (exactly $198,501) Cyberwave
Ary and the Secret of Seasons older $39.99 134 64% 4.0k $161k (exactly $160,760) eXiin, Fishing Cactus
Time Loader older $7.99 387 83% 12k $93k (exactly $92,764) Flazm
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
SPEEDSHOT $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) karmacode
Anomaly Protocol · EA $4.99 33 72% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Oriland
Beta MAX $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Nexcide
Medieval Tavern Simulator · EA $10.99 6 83% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) Superwolf Game Studio
Mental Hellacious $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MoreNEWttoStudio
DuaLight $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) RedWineGames Studio
Void Jump VR $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) LemmoLab
Time Flipper $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Lusho

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.