Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Platformer › 3D Platformer + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Science

Of 28 developers who shipped a Science 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 650% on the market, 44 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $306k → $718 → $0 → $299 → $748 → $959 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,224)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $19,790)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 91
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 650% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 862 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Portal 2 2011 · $117M Portal 2007 · $52M The Talos Principle 2 2023 · $11M Suicide Guy 2017 · $502k Quantum Conundrum 2012 · $474k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Suicide Guy older $5.99 2,794 88% 84k $502k (exactly $502,082) Fabio Ferrara
Quantum Conundrum older $8.99 1,758 84% 53k $474k (exactly $474,133) Airtight Games
DEPLOYMENT older $14.99 951 85% 29k $428k (exactly $427,665) Whale Rock Games
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep
The Enjenir: The Engineering Physics Building Simulator · EA older $14.99 681 91% 20k $306k (exactly $306,246) PeatyTurf
Boson X older $4.99 1,327 93% 40k $199k (exactly $198,652) Ian MacLarty, Jon Kerney
ChromaGun older $12.99 303 76% 9.1k $118k (exactly $118,079) Pixel Maniacs
Paleo Dive $19.99 33 84% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Astra Render
Keplerian Space Discovery · EA $24.99 25 88% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) Kugelblitz
Not Sure About That $4.99 76 98% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) Scratch
Solvimus $19.99 11 90% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) Iocus GmbH
Cube Mind $4.99 25 96% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) David Seco
Hypotheses on the Symmetry between Vision and Hands $1.99 54 96% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) Finger tip
Cubin $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Limsod Games
Whitematter $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Exothermic Games
One More Experiment $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Ambercrown Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.