Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Sci-fi

Of 251 developers who shipped a Sci-fi 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 445 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 141 developers shipped in the last year and 445 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 445 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 251
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $299 → $599 → $359 → $599 → $449 → $657 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 251
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $289k (exactly $288,804)
Developers, 2 yr 251
Released games 817
Announced 445
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 90,745 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 140 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 445 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart older $59.99 11,529 90% 346k $21M (exactly $20,748,741) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
CRISIS CORE –FINAL FANTASY VII– REUNION older $49.99 6,949 89% 208k $10M (exactly $10,421,415) Square Enix, TOSE CO., LTD.
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
Sonic Adventure 2 older $9.99 23,755 90% 713k $7.1M (exactly $7,119,374) SEGA
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
MOBILE SUIT GUNDAM SEED BATTLE DESTINY REMASTERED $39.99 757 77% 23k $908k (exactly $908,173) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Bubsy 4D $19.99 777 92% 23k $466k (exactly $465,967) Fabraz
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.