Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Puzzle

Of 495 developers who shipped a Puzzle 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 785 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 248 developers shipped in the last year and 785 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 785 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 495
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $599 → $479 → $716 → $537 → $539 → $390 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 495
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,599)
Top 5% $102k (exactly $101,949)
Developers, 2 yr 495
Released games 1,610
Announced 785
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle Platformer, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 27,380 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 333 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 785 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
The Last Campfire older $14.99 17,406 97% 522k $7.8M (exactly $7,827,478) Hello Games
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
LEGO® Harry Potter™ Collection $39.99 1,464 82% 44k $1.8M (exactly $1,756,361) TT Games, Double Eleven
Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed $39.99 1,275 93% 38k $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) Purple Lamp
LEGO® Voyagers $24.99 1,859 88% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) Light Brick Studio
Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered $29.99 1,507 89% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
Monument Valley 3 $14.99 2,155 93% 65k $969k (exactly $969,104) ustwo games
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
A Webbing Journey · EA $9.99 1,263 98% 38k $379k (exactly $378,521) Fire Totem Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.