Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Platformer › 3D Platformer + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Physics

Of 594 developers who shipped a Physics 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 736 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 319 developers shipped in the last year and 736 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 736 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 594
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $1.1k → $479 → $537 → $600 → $629 → $390 (still earning) → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 594
Bottom 30% $135 (exactly $135)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $50k (exactly $49,882)
Developers, 2 yr 594
Released games 1,585
Announced 736
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, Adventure, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 22,065 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $140, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $49k.

3 in 10 developers made under $140. 9 in 10 of the 354 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 736 games are announced against 319 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Portal 2 2011 · $117M Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M Portal 2007 · $52M Gorilla Tag 2023 · $32M Viewfinder 2023 · $8.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Clustertruck older $14.99 14,706 93% 441k $6.6M (exactly $6,613,288) Landfall
Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game $24.99 6,638 94% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) MLMEDIA
Trine 3: The Artifacts of Power older $21.99 7,301 63% 219k $4.8M (exactly $4,816,470) Frozenbyte
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
LEGO® Voyagers $24.99 1,859 88% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) Light Brick Studio
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games
Carry The Glass $4.99 2,839 75% 85k $425k (exactly $424,998) Çağatay Demir, Enes Kaplan
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
A Webbing Journey · EA $9.99 1,263 98% 38k $379k (exactly $378,521) Fire Totem Games
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.