Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Mystery Dungeon

Of 23 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $20k, ×33 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 38 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $89 → $718 → $750 → $60 → $17k → $628 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,594)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $20,767)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 68
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hourglass older $19.99 331 88% 9.9k $199k (exactly $198,501) Cyberwave
PIT OF GOBLIN · EA $5.99 915 84% 27k $164k (exactly $164,426) Friendly Foe
DungeonCrawlers $8.99 77 68% 2.3k $21k (exactly $20,767) KusanohitoCreative
The Maze Survivor: The 9th Entrants $8.99 62 82% 1.9k $17k (exactly $16,721) 崔资坦独立游戏Triztan IndieGame
PENGUIN HOTEL 2 -Snake Penguin Ambition- $9.99 40 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) lemorion_1224
2番線 | Nibansen older $4.99 66 80% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) MFC STUDIO
Holy Shot $5.99 53 84% 1.6k $9.5k (exactly $9,524) LoneWolf Digital Arts
Man in gravity older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
JongRo 3_Street older $6.99 31 58% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) BlueKim
THE ILLUSION: CURSE older $19.99 9 55% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Raven Games
UnPlugged $5.99 20 75% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) DemonLabs Interactive
Lightkeeper's Curse $8.99 12 100% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Shire Brew Studios
SaveShe $69.99 1 100% 30 $2.1k (exactly $2,100) shibahuax
The Pilgrim's Progress $24.99 1 100% 30 $750 (exactly $750) Elvio Lujan
Creation of a god: The Eternal Village $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Lost Dreams Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.