Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Metroidvania

Of 40 developers who shipped a Metroidvania 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 151 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×551 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 151 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 151 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $3.9k → $9.6k → $44k → $4.8k (still earning) → $836 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $836 (exactly $836)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $91,749)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,027)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 112
Announced 151
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Metroidvania; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,540 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 151 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Death's Door older $19.99 19,330 93% 580k $12M (exactly $11,592,201) Acid Nerve
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Journey To The Savage Planet older $29.99 5,674 87% 170k $5.1M (exactly $5,104,898) Typhoon
The Gunk older $24.99 4,744 86% 142k $3.6M (exactly $3,556,577) Image & Form Games
Pseudoregalia older $5.99 16,978 96% 509k $3.1M (exactly $3,050,947) rittzler
Hob older $19.99 4,667 88% 140k $2.8M (exactly $2,798,800) Runic Games
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
Blue Fire older $19.99 1,908 83% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,144,228) Robi Studios
Gori: Cuddly Carnage older $21.99 1,434 96% 43k $946k (exactly $946,010) Angry Demon Studio
ReCore: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,441 62% 43k $864k (exactly $864,168) Armature Studio, LLC, Comcept
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
Eternity Egg · EA $19.99 577 82% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) USERLANDS
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Zefyr: A Thief's Melody $19.99 401 96% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Oneiric Worlds
Possessor(s) $9.99 718 75% 22k $215k (exactly $215,185) Heart Machine
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
Tomba! 2: The Evil Swine Return Special Edition $19.99 319 91% 9.6k $191k (exactly $191,304) Limited Run Games, Whoopee Camp
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.