Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Platformer › 3D Platformer + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Interactive Fiction

Of 58 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 29 developers shipped in the last year and 67 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 67 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $240 → $299 → $179 → $479 → $539 → $3.1k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $78,796)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 165
Announced 67
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 2,015 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. Nearly all of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M Caravan SandWitch 2024 · $2.1M The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™ 2023 · $1.3M Stripjong - Super Real Mahjong Venus Returns 2026 · $666k KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- 2026 · $665k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™ older $49.99 839 41% 25k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,248) Daedalic Entertainment
Stripjong - Super Real Mahjong Venus Returns $29.99 740 80% 22k $666k (exactly $665,778) ILLUMINATION
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
VR-Kanojo $54.99 176 63% 5.3k $290k (exactly $290,347) ILLUMINATION
Love challenge older $12.99 312 75% 9.4k $122k (exactly $121,586) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL
A guard walks into a tavern older $7.99 415 83% 12k $99k (exactly $99,476) SuQing
Time Loader older $7.99 387 83% 12k $93k (exactly $92,764) Flazm
The Remake of the End of the Greatest RPG of All Time $17.99 146 86% 4.4k $79k (exactly $78,796) Coin Drop Games, Lucas Immanuel, jucobe… (Coin Drop Games, Lucas Immanuel, jucobee, Kyle Chuang)
Love Mansion $10.99 184 88% 5.5k $61k (exactly $60,665) Tsunmayo
MeiQi 2019 $3.99 71 66% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) QZQ Studio
Pikabuu: STOP! $0.99 219 95% 6.6k $6.5k (exactly $6,504) JoyKeratif
Diddy $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) GalaxyVerse
The Mansion of The Macabre $14.99 10 20% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Team Tatou
The Vanishing Train | ワンマン列車 $2.99 42 66% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) RAYBIS GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.