Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + 3D Platformer

Of 121 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 147 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 35% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 147 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.3k → $1.2k → $359 → $1.6k → $748 → $898 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,007)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 338
Announced 147
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 30,167 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $810, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game $24.99 6,638 94% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) MLMEDIA
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
Just Go older $9.99 3,227 92% 97k $967k (exactly $967,132) Studio Amateur
Twisted Tower $14.99 1,827 93% 55k $822k (exactly $821,602) Atmos Games
Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two older $19.99 973 78% 29k $584k (exactly $583,508) Junction Point
Quadrilateral Cowboy older $19.99 897 92% 27k $538k (exactly $537,931) Blendo Games
Shin chan: Me and the Professor on Summer Vacation The Endless Seven-Day Journey older $29.99 455 81% 14k $409k (exactly $409,364) Neos Corporation
我的钓鱼世界 · EA $14.99 203 60% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) 华幸
Glider Simulator $7.99 242 97% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,007) HFRK.
Completely Stretchy $18.99 63 87% 1.9k $36k (exactly $35,891) Warp Digital, Dan Ferguson
Casino Island Simulator · EA $8.99 120 61% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,364) Clap Games
GLUM · EA $12.49 78 64% 2.3k $29k (exactly $29,227) CinderCat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.