Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Historical

Of 25 developers who shipped a Historical 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×601 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 51 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 51 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $4.7k → $479 → $955 → $898 (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $955 (exactly $955)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 114
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Platformer, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,148 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $960, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Peaks of Yore older $18.99 3,587 97% 108k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,514) Anders Grube Jensen
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4 DX older $49.99 475 85% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Forgotten Concluder older $24.99 894 74% 27k $670k (exactly $670,232) Kunpo Games
Gecko Gods $19.99 629 96% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Inresin
下一站江湖Ⅰ older $19.99 581 72% 17k $348k (exactly $348,426) 白玉京工作室
Bubsy in: The Purrfect Collection $19.99 216 84% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Limited Run Games
Mulaka older $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Lienzo
Gomoku Let's Go older $2.99 883 88% 26k $79k (exactly $79,205) Studio Amateur
The House of Hikmah $19.99 61 98% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Lunacy Studios
Pyramidion · EA $4.99 71 85% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) TechDevAYDIN
Three Kingdoms: Shu-Han Chronicles $12.99 20 45% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) QianFan Game
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Balling Up $3.99 39 79% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) RedKar Devs
Flames of Freedom: 1821 · EA $4.99 31 80% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) NOUMENON
Wukong Fight in Kaoria $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) 圣工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.