Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Exploration

Of 638 developers who shipped an Exploration 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,198 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×585 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 1,198 games are announced against 326 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 1,198 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 638
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.2k → $899 → $987 → $1.6k → $1.2k → $1.1k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 638
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $8.3k (exactly $8,266)
Top 5% $368k (exactly $367,616)
Developers, 2 yr 638
Released games 1,904
Announced 1,198
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 54,105 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 417 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,198 games are announced against 326 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
A Hat in Time older $29.99 42,863 97% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,563,841) Gears for Breakfast
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Sonic Frontiers older $39.99 22,701 90% 681k $27M (exactly $27,234,390) Sonic Team
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
Death's Door older $19.99 19,330 93% 580k $12M (exactly $11,592,201) Acid Nerve
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game $24.99 6,638 94% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) MLMEDIA
My Little Puppy $24.99 4,435 97% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,920) Dreamotion Inc.
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed $39.99 1,275 93% 38k $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) Purple Lamp
LEGO® Voyagers $24.99 1,859 88% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) Light Brick Studio
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.