Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Dragons

Of 22 developers who shipped a Dragon 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×29 the market median. Revenue is up 1500% on the market; 36 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1500% on the market, 36 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $3.9k → $539 → $1.8k → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,800)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $17,988)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 72
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1500% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Action RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 402 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy older $39.99 14,211 92% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Toys for Bob, Iron Galaxy Studios
Toren older $9.99 954 64% 29k $286k (exactly $285,914) Swordtales
Churn Vector older $14.99 500 89% 15k $225k (exactly $224,850) Naelstrof, Eugene, Archival
DreamWorks Dragons: Dawn of New Riders older $29.99 158 90% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Climax Studios Ltd.
Scrap Garden older $9.99 206 72% 6.2k $62k (exactly $61,738) Egidijus Bachur, Alexey Davydov
DreamWorks Dragons: Legends of The Nine Realms older $49.99 34 82% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Kit's Quest older $14.99 45 93% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lone Fox Games
Fiz and the Rainbow Planet older $9.99 65 98% 2.0k $19k (exactly $19,480) にじいろドラゴン
Lunars · EA $14.99 40 97% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Anubis Arts
Mythrealm · EA $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Delta Video Games
Nomyou $11.99 39 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Kudalyn's Creations
Soar: Pillars of Tasneem $19.99 10 70% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) Kimchi Corp
Ecrazeus Castle $4.99 39 84% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Meringue Rouge
Dragon Hop $4.99 36 100% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Dustrider Studios
Dracamar $19.99 8 87% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) Petoons Studio, 3Cat
Zorro and Zedd $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Cloud Control Games
Way of the Dragons · EA $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Said Yavuz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.