Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Detective

Of 33 developers who shipped a Detective 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 47 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $478 → $1.1k → $60 → $30 → $598 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $898 (exactly $898)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $21,649)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 86
Announced 47
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 377 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contrast older $9.99 4,548 90% 136k $1.4M (exactly $1,363,036) Compulsion Games
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
Metamorphosis older $24.99 467 83% 14k $350k (exactly $350,110) Ovid Works
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Broken Sword 4 - the Angel of Death (2006) older $5.99 456 43% 14k $82k (exactly $81,943) Sumo Digital Ltd
Beside Myself older $6.99 318 66% 9.5k $67k (exactly $66,685) ASK GAMES
Hot Tin Roof: The Cat That Wore A Fedora older $14.99 74 70% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Glass Bottom Games
MeiQi 2022 older $7.99 95 80% 2.9k $23k (exactly $22,772) QZQ Studio
3DMurderMystery TheAshenYou $18.99 38 73% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,649) ぐだぐだぶとん
MeiQi 2019 $3.99 71 66% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) QZQ Studio
Tatari $9.99 21 61% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Hidden Tower Studios
Idiom Royale $1.99 91 63% 2.7k $5.4k (exactly $5,433) NyxWorks
Mikoshi: The Lost Crystals $5.99 11 90% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) DremGames
Toony's Daycare $4.99 10 80% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Little Ghost Games
Unwhole Hill:LAKE · EA $5.99 6 50% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Return Circle Games
Puzzledom $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) FWGames
Phantom Veil $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) SilentVigil Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.