Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Dark Fantasy

Of 94 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 160 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×927 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 160 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 160 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $300 → $178 → $3.4k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $898 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $9.2k (exactly $9,227)
Top 5% $582k (exactly $581,854)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 244
Announced 160
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Platformer
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 17,055 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 160 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Another Crab's Treasure older $29.99 16,863 93% 506k $15M (exactly $15,171,641) Aggro Crab
Death's Door older $19.99 19,330 93% 580k $12M (exactly $11,592,201) Acid Nerve
Alice: Madness Returns older $9.99 27,795 90% 834k $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) Spicy Horse Games
The Last Campfire older $14.99 17,406 97% 522k $7.8M (exactly $7,827,478) Hello Games
Bramble: The Mountain King older $29.99 6,512 94% 195k $5.9M (exactly $5,858,846) Dimfrost Studio
South of Midnight $39.99 4,382 94% 131k $5.3M (exactly $5,257,085) Compulsion Games
Made in Abyss: Binary Star Falling into Darkness older $59.99 2,650 79% 80k $4.8M (exactly $4,769,205) Chime Corporation
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Praey for the Gods older $29.99 2,489 82% 75k $2.2M (exactly $2,239,353) No Matter Studios
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Kristala $39.99 485 71% 15k $582k (exactly $581,854) Astral Clocktower Studios
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Idols of Ash $2.99 3,352 97% 101k $301k (exactly $300,674) Leafy Games
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
PIT OF GOBLIN · EA $5.99 915 84% 27k $164k (exactly $164,426) Friendly Foe
Ayasa: Shadows of Silence $24.99 110 74% 3.3k $82k (exactly $82,467) Aya Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.