Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Crafting

Of 72 developers who shipped a Crafting 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $330 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 39 developers shipped in the last year and 104 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 104 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $598 → $0 → $148 → $300 → $1.2k → $599 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $5.6k (exactly $5,571)
Top 5% $748k (exactly $747,826)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 182
Announced 104
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 22,904 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Made in Abyss: Binary Star Falling into Darkness older $59.99 2,650 79% 80k $4.8M (exactly $4,769,205) Chime Corporation
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
Cozy Caravan $19.99 1,247 93% 37k $748k (exactly $747,826) 5 Lives Studios
LEGO® Horizon Adventures™ $39.99 403 60% 12k $483k (exactly $483,479) Guerrilla Games, Studio Gobo
Die Young older $9.99 1,521 78% 46k $456k (exactly $455,844) IndieGala
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio
Time on Frog Island older $19.99 284 71% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Half Past Yellow
DreamWorks Dragons: Dawn of New Riders older $29.99 158 90% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Climax Studios Ltd.
WorldNeverland - Daily Life in the Elnea Kingdom - Another Life Adventure $29.99 92 78% 2.8k $83k (exactly $82,772) althi Inc.
KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) GRAVITY GAME ARISE
Umami Grove $19.99 42 92% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) Pomshine Games
Keplerian Space Discovery · EA $24.99 25 88% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) Kugelblitz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.