Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Choices Matter

Of 122 developers who shipped a Choices Matter 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 141 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 63 developers shipped in the last year and 141 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 141 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $3.9k → $1.2k → $150 → $1.2k → $359 → $269 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $78,718)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 301
Announced 141
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Platformer, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,473 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 141 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Sable older $24.99 5,365 86% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,022,140) Shedworks
Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed $39.99 1,275 93% 38k $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) Purple Lamp
The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™ older $49.99 839 41% 25k $1.3M (exactly $1,258,248) Daedalic Entertainment
BUNNY GARDEN older $24.99 1,230 92% 37k $922k (exactly $922,131) qureate
Stardom 3 older $12.99 1,600 94% 48k $624k (exactly $623,520) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two older $19.99 973 78% 29k $584k (exactly $583,508) Junction Point
Voodoo Fishin' · EA $9.99 800 81% 24k $240k (exactly $239,760) Lost Arcade
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
7th Sector older $10.99 643 72% 19k $212k (exactly $211,997) Носков Сергей
Flee, My Elven Ninja! 3D $14.99 347 85% 10k $156k (exactly $156,046) Barance Studio
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
WorldNeverland - Daily Life in the Elnea Kingdom - Another Life Adventure $29.99 92 78% 2.8k $83k (exactly $82,772) althi Inc.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City $24.99 105 76% 3.2k $79k (exactly $78,718) Cortopia Studios
Curiosity: A Cat Climbing Game $9.99 220 96% 6.6k $66k (exactly $65,934) DarkBear Studios, iNightGaming LLC
Sex Wishes 🔮 $14.99 145 68% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Fate and Life: The Mystery of Vaulinhorn $13.99 139 64% 4.2k $58k (exactly $58,338) Celestial Novel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.