Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Bullet Hell

Of 49 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 26 developers shipped in the last year and 69 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $898 → $587 → $449 → $299 → $299 → $419 (still earning) → $298 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,390)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 164
Announced 69
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Bullet Hell; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,198 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
Bears In Space older $19.99 477 87% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) Broadside Games
UNDER DEFEAT $19.99 81 95% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
2076 - Midway Multiverse older $19.99 40 80% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Ivanovich Games
CosmicGalaxyWars $19.99 34 76% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) YOSHITSUNA INC.
Escape from Terror City older $9.99 36 75% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Renegade Sector Games
Savage: Ultimate Boss Fight older $4.99 64 98% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) SavageDev
Holy Shot $5.99 53 84% 1.6k $9.5k (exactly $9,524) LoneWolf Digital Arts
Touhou: Blossom Blade $5.99 47 91% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) Ankake Spa
Thunder Kid older $7.99 30 96% 900 $7.2k (exactly $7,191) Renegade Sector Games
Hyperstacks $19.99 11 90% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) Squirrel Bytes
Gelatina is Hungry $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Under Castle
Dark Erosion: Endless Siege $6.99 15 80% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) LaoLiang
Galatico · EA $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Galatico Studios
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.