Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Alternate History

Of 22 developers who shipped an Alternate-History 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 63 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 63 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $418 → $19k → $89 → $180 → $898 → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $987 (exactly $987)
Top 5% $7.8k (exactly $7,794)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 84
Announced 63
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cartoony, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 234 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $210, 1 in 4 over $980, 1 in 20 over $7.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
7th Sector older $10.99 643 72% 19k $212k (exactly $211,997) Носков Сергей
Real estate tycoon · EA older $10.99 418 63% 13k $138k (exactly $137,815) Double Eggs
Lifeless Moon older $12.99 256 78% 7.7k $100k (exactly $99,763) Serenity Forge
Time Loader older $7.99 387 83% 12k $93k (exactly $92,764) Flazm
Aztech Forgotten Gods older $29.99 50 66% 1.5k $45k (exactly $44,985) Lienzo
Joe Wander and the Enigmatic Adventures older $29.99 48 79% 1.4k $43k (exactly $43,186) Frozen Pixel
Yupitergrad 🚀(Virtual Reality Adventure) older $14.99 88 95% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Gamedust
I dont Fall older $6.99 169 84% 5.1k $35k (exactly $35,439) PUMPKIM
琉隐 older $8.99 118 54% 3.5k $32k (exactly $31,825) kingna studio
Three Kingdoms: Shu-Han Chronicles $12.99 20 45% 600 $7.8k (exactly $7,794) QianFan Game
Sheep Seeker $9.99 22 100% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KI… (Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KIRK, Séverin RICHARD, Matthieu FARROW, François HANUS, Quentin EUNG, Mattéo GLAIRON-MONDET, Lucas RENARD, Céline TRUONG)
SIGMA WAR NOTES $12.99 12 66% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ningbo Dongshe Network Technology Co.,… (Ningbo Dongshe Network Technology Co., Ltd)
Wild West Saloon Simulator · EA $7.99 5 20% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Walty Games
Escape The Wojak GOTY $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Chungledown Max, Game Dev Guy
JETPACK BIRDIE $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Alexey Kuleshov
Kano. Stone islands. $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Sirotkin Aleksandr
Belonging to Eunoia $7.00 2 100% 60 $420 (exactly $420) Purestblue
Berserker 2: The Saga of Hilde $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) One Life Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.