Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Incremental

Only 16 developers shipped an Incremental 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, IGNOBLE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $90. Revenue is up 4200% on the market; 13 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 4200% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30 → $298 → $599 (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 5% $69k (exactly $69,411)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 54
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4200% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Collectathon, PvE
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 425 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $1.2k, 1 in 20 over $69k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  10. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced
  12. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 28 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Gigapocalypse older $9.99 204 92% 6.1k $61k (exactly $61,139) Goody Gameworks
New ZhaoYun older $29.99 25 44% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) XBZYZ Game
Heritage $9.99 44 72% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Big Three Games
Idle Superpowers older $6.99 61 77% 1.8k $13k (exactly $12,792) Lutsgames
Street karate 3 older $4.99 55 80% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Essential Tactics Games
Middle Age Conquest older $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) Musa GUNGOR
Toubatsu older $6.99 18 77% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) ぽんこん堂
Valkeala Birds $2.99 18 77% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Achievement Killer older $0.99 44 54% 1.3k $1.3k (exactly $1,307) Leakage Games
Cromania · EA $6.99 6 100% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Momoiu Cerasela Nicoleta
Idle Squire $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) White Cape Games
The Village Above the Well $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) STREAM ON
Pixel Chess Idle RPG $4.99 4 50% 120 $599 (exactly $599) SHIFT.
Monster Mine Clash $2.99 6 50% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Zer0 Se7en
Pixel Way: Prologue $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Levelborn
The Fallen Kingdom $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Lucas Baldi Aragão

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.