Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter JRPG?

JRPG + 2D Fighter

Only 6 developers shipped a 2D Fighter JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $270 against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for JRPG + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,372)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 33
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, 2D Fighter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 20,518 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Granblue Fantasy: Versus older $19.99 7,631 83% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,576,311) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Granblue Fantasy Versus: Rising older $24.99 5,944 83% 178k $4.5M (exactly $4,456,217) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Persona 4 Arena Ultimax older $29.99 3,857 87% 116k $3.5M (exactly $3,470,143) Arc System Works, ATLUS
The Shadow of Yidhra older $10.99 1,355 89% 41k $447k (exactly $446,744) WhitePeach
Umineko: Golden Fantasia older $24.99 472 91% 14k $354k (exactly $353,858) 07th Expansion
Blazing Aries older $18.99 366 87% 11k $209k (exactly $208,510) Kuroto Zakka
Estella's Nightmare: Sealed Space and a Succubus's Curse older $9.99 512 70% 15k $153k (exactly $153,446) Playmeow
Demon Sword: Incubus older $19.99 184 76% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Brianode
AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match $19.99 104 33% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) AQUAPLUS
BANCHOU TACTICS older $19.99 93 78% 2.8k $56k (exactly $55,772) SECRET CHARACTER, ITSARAAMATA
泳装乱舞 $3.99 95 75% 2.9k $11k (exactly $11,372) 1v1combat
Regotown $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) GolGrot
포포의 모험 (The Adventures of Popo) $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) 토파가넷
寓言行者 FABLE WALKER $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Touchmeta co., Ltd., touchmeta co
The Light and the Shadow $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) EnrolaDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.