Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Visual Novel?

Co-op + Visual Novel

Only 6 developers shipped a Co-op Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Immortal Hunters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×35 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.9k against a market of $1.5k. 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 35 announced, ×35 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $4.9k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,527)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $56,971)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 50
Announced 35
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 85% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 29,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×35 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition older $39.99 5,731 78% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) AQURIA
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Escape Academy older $19.99 1,105 86% 33k $663k (exactly $662,668) Coin Crew Games
The Yawhg older $9.99 1,131 84% 34k $339k (exactly $338,961) Damian Sommer, Emily Carroll
Astatos · EA older $14.99 298 82% 8.9k $134k (exactly $134,011) Studio Klondike Australia
Royal Defense older $14.99 246 70% 7.4k $111k (exactly $110,626) Good Games, Creobit
Fort Defense older $14.99 232 78% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) Creobit
looK INside - Chapter 1 older $7.99 421 86% 13k $101k (exactly $100,914) Unexpected
Immortal Hunters $19.99 95 67% 2.9k $57k (exactly $56,971) Admiral Games
Soul Stalker $4.99 77 77% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,527) Radhood, Conradical Games
Market Simulator $4.99 33 75% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) KOZGAMES
100 Cats Lost In World Find & Color $4.99 28 96% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Two Cats Games
100 Cats Lost In Space Find & Color $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Two Cats Games
100 Cats Lost In USA Find & Color $3.99 11 81% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Two Cats Games
100 Cats Lost In World 2 Find & Color · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Two Cats Games
Aeonic $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) dev
Endless Salvation $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 炉火绘题本

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.