Should I ship a War Tank game?
Tanks + War
Of 68 developers who shipped a War Tank game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×1531 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 125 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,468) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $15,584) |
| Top 5% | $961k (exactly $961,308) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 68 |
| Released games | 339 |
| Announced | 125 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Tanks; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Wargame
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 49,495 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tanks with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + HistoricalFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + Turn-Based TacticsFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Open WorldFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds
- + Action RTSPoor odds
- + Real Time TacticsPoor odds
- + TacticalPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Hell Let Loose | older | $49.99 | 99,628 83% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,412,112) | Expression Games |
| | Company of Heroes 2 | older | $19.99 | 68,909 80% | 2.1M | $41M (exactly $41,324,727) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
| | Men of War: Assault Squad 2 | older | $29.99 | 35,744 91% | 1.1M | $32M (exactly $32,158,877) | Digitalmindsoft |
| | Call of Duty: World at War | older | $19.99 | 45,792 92% | 1.4M | $27M (exactly $27,461,462) | Treyarch |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER | $49.99 | 13,554 82% | 407k | $20M (exactly $20,326,934) | KONAMI | |
| | Command & Conquer™ Remastered Collection | older | $19.99 | 31,503 90% | 945k | $19M (exactly $18,892,349) | Petroglyph, Lemon Sky Studios |
| | WARNO | older | $39.99 | 14,502 80% | 435k | $17M (exactly $17,398,049) | Eugen Systems |
| | Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm | older | $19.99 | 24,876 93% | 746k | $15M (exactly $14,918,137) | Tripwire Interactive |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version | $29.99 | 2,315 96% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) | KONAMI | |
| | Call to Arms: Panzer Elite | · EA | $29.99 | 1,927 69% | 58k | $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) | Digitalmindsoft |
| | Sudden Strike 5 | $49.99 | 641 75% | 19k | $961k (exactly $961,308) | Kite Games | |
| | Metal Slug Tactics | $24.99 | 1,152 76% | 35k | $864k (exactly $863,654) | Leikir Studio | |
| | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
| | Vietnam War | · EA | $14.99 | 1,704 84% | 51k | $766k (exactly $766,289) | Thorium Game Lab |
| | Tank Squad | $19.99 | 847 70% | 25k | $508k (exactly $507,946) | DeGenerals S.A. | |
| | Warside | $24.99 | 547 68% | 16k | $410k (exactly $410,086) | LAVABIRD |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.