Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Tactical game?

Tactical + War

Of 371 developers who shipped a War Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 729 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×5913 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 729 games are announced against 218 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 729 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 371
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $2.5k → $987 → $2.6k → $5.4k → $2.2k → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 371
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,455)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257)
Developers, 2 yr 371
Released games 1,351
Announced 729
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 519,736 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 199 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 729 games are announced against 218 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.