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Should I ship a Visual Novel Tactical game?
Tactical + Visual Novel
Of 34 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $55k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 45 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) |
| Top 25% | $9.4k (exactly $9,436) |
| Top 5% | $55k (exactly $55,172) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 34 |
| Released games | 94 |
| Announced | 45 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Tactical, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Choices Matter, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,519 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Football (American)Strong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + Farming SimFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 小白兔电商~Bunny e-Shop | older | $10.99 | 9,176 93% | 275k | $3.0M (exactly $3,025,327) | 落叶岛项目组, 橘子班 |
| | Persona 5 Tactica | older | $59.99 | 1,526 74% | 46k | $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) | ATLUS |
| | Wars and Roses | older | $19.99 | 2,435 42% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,460,270) | Blaze Worlds |
| | Agarest: Generations of War | older | $14.99 | 1,668 70% | 50k | $750k (exactly $750,100) | Idea Factory |
| | Demonschool | $24.99 | 984 91% | 30k | $738k (exactly $737,705) | Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems | |
| | Eiyu*Senki Gold – A New Conquest | older | $34.99 | 398 85% | 12k | $418k (exactly $417,781) | Tenco |
| | VenusBlood HOLLOW International | older | $44.99 | 287 96% | 8.6k | $387k (exactly $387,364) | Ninetail, Dualtail |
| | Wintermoor Tactics Club | older | $14.99 | 538 87% | 16k | $242k (exactly $241,939) | EVC Games |
| | Agarest: Generations of War Zero | older | $19.99 | 350 72% | 11k | $210k (exactly $209,895) | Idea Factory |
| | Love n War: Warlord by Chance | older | $4.99 | 1,305 86% | 39k | $195k (exactly $195,358) | Reborn Entertainment |
| | Infinity: HexaDome Tactics | $19.99 | 92 75% | 2.8k | $55k (exactly $55,172) | Blindspot Games | |
| | Sunrider Legends Tactics | $29.99 | 40 80% | 1.2k | $36k (exactly $35,988) | Love in Space | |
| | Slay or Fall | $6.99 | 147 89% | 4.4k | $31k (exactly $30,826) | ostsergey | |
| | Sex Vault: The Lust-Tec Project | $9.99 | 79 83% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $23,676) | Kinky Business Group | |
| | Dark Lord Leona | $8.99 | 72 87% | 2.2k | $19k (exactly $19,418) | Maker製造機 | |
| | Simp: Leveling Up on a Dating App | $9.99 | 38 65% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | MONSTIVE | |
| | Under the Disco Lights - 80's Bar Simulator | $9.99 | 34 85% | 1.0k | $10k (exactly $10,190) | Efsus Games | |
| | Yamizome Liberator | $34.95 | 9 66% | 270 | $9.4k (exactly $9,436) | Escu:de | |
| | Three Kingdoms : Restoration of Han | $12.99 | 24 33% | 720 | $9.4k (exactly $9,353) | Playnauts |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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