Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Tactical game?

Tactical + Visual Novel

Of 34 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $55k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 45 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $135k → $3.3k → $22k → $1.2k → $19k → $5.9k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,436)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $55,172)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 94
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Choices Matter, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
小白兔电商~Bunny e-Shop older $10.99 9,176 93% 275k $3.0M (exactly $3,025,327) 落叶岛项目组, 橘子班
Persona 5 Tactica older $59.99 1,526 74% 46k $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) ATLUS
Wars and Roses older $19.99 2,435 42% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,460,270) Blaze Worlds
Agarest: Generations of War older $14.99 1,668 70% 50k $750k (exactly $750,100) Idea Factory
Demonschool $24.99 984 91% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems
Eiyu*Senki Gold – A New Conquest older $34.99 398 85% 12k $418k (exactly $417,781) Tenco
VenusBlood HOLLOW International older $44.99 287 96% 8.6k $387k (exactly $387,364) Ninetail, Dualtail
Wintermoor Tactics Club older $14.99 538 87% 16k $242k (exactly $241,939) EVC Games
Agarest: Generations of War Zero older $19.99 350 72% 11k $210k (exactly $209,895) Idea Factory
Love n War: Warlord by Chance older $4.99 1,305 86% 39k $195k (exactly $195,358) Reborn Entertainment
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Sunrider Legends Tactics $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Love in Space
Slay or Fall $6.99 147 89% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) ostsergey
Sex Vault: The Lust-Tec Project $9.99 79 83% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Kinky Business Group
Dark Lord Leona $8.99 72 87% 2.2k $19k (exactly $19,418) Maker製造機
Simp: Leveling Up on a Dating App $9.99 38 65% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) MONSTIVE
Under the Disco Lights - 80's Bar Simulator $9.99 34 85% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Efsus Games
Yamizome Liberator $34.95 9 66% 270 $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Escu:de
Three Kingdoms : Restoration of Han $12.99 24 33% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Playnauts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.