Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Trading Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Game Tactical game?

Tactical + Trading Card Game

Of 43 developers who shipped a Trading Card Game Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $16k, ×26 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 87 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Trading Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178 → $2.7k → $6.1k → $1.5k → $480 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Trading Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $16,195)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 131
Announced 87
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Trading Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 509 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $16k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rento Fortune: Online Dice Board Game (大富翁) older $4.99 3,063 50% 92k $459k (exactly $458,531) LAN - GAMES LTD
Ascension: Deckbuilding Game older $9.99 1,435 88% 43k $430k (exactly $430,070) Playdek, Inc.
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
Heart of Crown PC older $24.99 528 80% 16k $396k (exactly $395,842) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, Japanime Digital
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Cardaclysm older $14.99 425 64% 13k $191k (exactly $191,122) Elder Games
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
The Amazing American Circus older $14.99 138 61% 4.1k $62k (exactly $62,059) Klabater, Juggler Games
Etherlords II older $4.99 372 85% 11k $56k (exactly $55,688) Nival
Castle Cardians · EA older $14.99 113 72% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) 风宇冲
Islets Defense $9.99 129 94% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,661) MiniGoof
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Card Summoner $14.99 32 50% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Happenstance Games
ChronoBabes $3.99 81 80% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Vinci
Musicmenia $9.99 32 90% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Symphonic Games
Truco Argentino $5.99 46 95% 1.4k $8.3k (exactly $8,266) Agustin Rambaldo
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Schoolgirl Card Pull Simulator $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) Violet Soft
Card of Legend $6.99 31 54% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Anchor Node

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.