Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Tactical game?

Tactical + Top-Down Shooter

Of 88 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 179 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 55 developers shipped in the last year and 179 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 179 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $239 → $1.4k → $1.3k → $898 → $2.2k → $628 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $277,915)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 259
Announced 179
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 25,127 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $480, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 179 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
SYNTHETIK: Legion Rising older $19.99 10,111 94% 303k $6.1M (exactly $6,063,567) Flow Fire Games
Door Kickers older $19.99 8,041 94% 241k $4.8M (exactly $4,822,188) KillHouse Games
Police Stories older $19.99 7,893 85% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) HypeTrain Digital
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Intravenous 2 older $19.99 4,069 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,179) Explosive Squat Games
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Phantom Squad $13.99 416 80% 12k $175k (exactly $174,595) Ctrl Freak
CyberCorp $14.99 351 75% 11k $158k (exactly $157,845) Megame LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.