Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Tactical game?

Tactical + Time Manipulation

Of 22 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $46k, ×73 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $91k → $19k → $1.6k → $5.4k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $46k (exactly $46,154)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 61
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Arcade
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 787 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $46k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DEATHLOOP 2021 · $36M F1® Manager 2024 2024 · $5.8M Phantom Brigade 2023 · $4.0M ICBM 2020 · $993k Timelie 2020 · $962k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Timelie older $17.99 1,783 95% 53k $962k (exactly $962,285) Urnique Studio
No Plan B older $14.99 761 86% 23k $342k (exactly $342,222) GFX47
Maze Mice $9.99 315 88% 9.5k $94k (exactly $94,406) TrampolineTales
Lysfanga: The Time Shift Warrior older $19.99 155 73% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Sand Door Studio
Timemelters older $19.99 152 92% 4.6k $91k (exactly $91,154) Autoexec Games
District Steel · EA older $24.99 76 93% 2.3k $57k (exactly $56,977) Barricade Studio
Loophole $9.99 154 99% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Levi Pinkert
Slayaway Camp 2 $12.99 49 93% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Blue Wizard Digital
Bauhaus Bonk $7.99 73 100% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) Spoonful Games
Moon Watch · EA $9.99 56 57% 1.7k $17k (exactly $16,783) Jaspel
Shadows of Soldiers $9.99 45 75% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Ghost in the Wire
Temporal Titans · EA $9.99 44 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Lost Tower Games
SPEEDSHOT $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) karmacode
Ricave $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Rogueatic Games
Symphorix · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) OnTriggerJoy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.