Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Tactical game?

Tactical + Supernatural

Of 35 developers who shipped a Supernatural Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 47 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.0k → $95k → $8.5k → $1.9k → $298 → $119 (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 5% $233k (exactly $232,567)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 91
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, PvE
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Dark, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,648 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Midnight Ghost Hunt older $19.99 5,420 80% 163k $3.3M (exactly $3,250,374) Vaulted Sky Games
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
At Dead Of Night older $15.99 3,289 94% 99k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,733) Baggy Cat Ltd.
The Lamplighters League older $49.99 726 71% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) Harebrained Schemes
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Contain · EA older $13.99 673 55% 20k $282k (exactly $282,458) SinginGiant
Project Unknown $9.99 776 81% 23k $233k (exactly $232,567) PsychoRavens
Deck of Souls $11.99 153 84% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,034) Bigboot Studios
SONOKUNI $14.99 109 98% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) DON YASA CREW
Deadly Quiet $9.75 89 55% 2.7k $26k (exactly $26,032) Tarba Paul Cornel, Abdul Rafy
TIC-TAC: Twelve o'clock $9.99 31 80% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) ARMAG
SCP: Retrieval · EA $4.99 57 59% 1.7k $8.5k (exactly $8,533) Arcsteel Games
Expedition: Shadow World $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Pavel Tanonov
What Is The Ghost · EA $7.99 22 95% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Deda Games
Trial of Ariah $11.95 12 91% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,302) 30 Minute Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.