Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Tactical game?

Tactical + Simulation

Of 524 developers who shipped a Simulation Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 804 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2190 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 804 games are announced against 333 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 804 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 524
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.6k → $5.4k → $4.8k → $7.2k → $4.8k → $2.4k → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 524
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,674)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225)
Developers, 2 yr 524
Released games 1,638
Announced 804
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, Action
Price point
$9.90 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 271,798 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 237 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 804 games are announced against 333 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Insurgency: Sandstorm older $29.99 104,168 85% 3.1M $94M (exactly $93,719,950) New World Interactive
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software
Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades $19.99 22,774 97% 683k $14M (exactly $13,657,568) RUST LTD.
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.