Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Tactical game?

Tactical + Sailing

Only 13 developers shipped a Sailing Tactical game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $1.5k → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 37
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Sailing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Combat, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,074 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Out of Reach: Treasure Royale older $14.99 337 58% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) Space Boat Studios
Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale older $24.99 132 51% 4.0k $99k (exactly $98,960) Gaming Minds Studios
Ships 2017 older $19.99 156 32% 4.7k $94k (exactly $93,553) FragOut
East India Company older $9.99 190 52% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Nitro Games
Here Be Dragons older $9.99 133 63% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,860) Red Zero Games
Kingdom of Wreck Business older $9.99 127 31% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,062) WarZoneLab
HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia $8.99 56 75% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) Tearevo
Port Authority $5.99 31 96% 930 $5.6k (exactly $5,571) NFold Games
Pirates! Showdown: Enhanced Edition · EA older $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) FlashPoint Games, LLC
The EverFloating Island $19.99 6 33% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) GU GAMES
Ship of the line · EA $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) YDS
Old Salt $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Kneeshaw Developments, Never Board Games
Cool Game Pack $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) COOL 2 Interactive
Legacy of Sail $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Hydran Software
Pirate Twist · EA $4.67 5 100% 150 $700 (exactly $700) BTG Labs
Hullbreaker · EA $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Dalton

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.