Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Tactical game?

Tactical + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 88 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1355 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 132 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 132 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $76k → $8.4k → $16k → $58k → $12k → $11k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Median $14k (exactly $13,755)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $71,349)
Top 5% $851k (exactly $850,715)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 159
Announced 132
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 36,856 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 6 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Deep Sky Derelicts older $19.99 1,985 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Snowhound Games
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings $24.99 469 74% 14k $352k (exactly $351,609) Palindrome Interactive
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.